Aids hits skilled economy



By Roy Cokayne

22nd October, 2001.

Pretoria - South Africa would have 4 million to 8 million fewer people in 2010 because of Aids and had already lost more than 4 million highly skilled people and entrepreneurs, Carel van Aardt, a research director at Unisa's Bureau for Market Research (BMR), said on Friday.

"Our estimate is of 4,3 million less highly skilled people and entrepreneurs, due to Aids related deaths by 2010," he told the BMR's annual research review meeting.

"But this figure would immediately double if people who cited HIV/Aids as a reason for leaving the country were included.

"A lot of people want to leave the country because they are scared of the future impact of Aids."

He said HIV/Aids would also have contributed to a strong growth in unemployment and poverty by 2010, as well as a decline in business confidence and fixed domestic investment, hurting economic growth and development.

Van Aardt stressed the population losses due to HIV/Aids would be in the key productive ages of the population and there would be 7 million Aids orphans. HIV/Aids would also effect expenditure and saving patterns.

He said HIV/Aids would also affect entrepreneurship and formal sector behaviour, with the formal sector more wary about putting money into projects and into job creation.